The relationship between sanctions pressure against Russia and dynamics of Russian Crude Oil supplies to India

This research paper investigates the complex impact of Western Sanctions against Russia on the fluctuations of Crude Oil import to India using the surge in exports to India 2014-2024 as a case study. The central problematic is the efficacy of sanctions which aimed to isolate Russia but instead triggered market reorientation, strengthening alternative partnerships and alternative partnerships and reshaping global energy flows. The study’s main goal is to compute and express mathematically the sanctions’ in question effect on Crude oil export volumes to India. The context and debates is within discussions between proponents of sanctions as a coercive instrument and critics who emphasize adaptive circumvention through new trade hubs like India, driven by discounted oil and strategic autonomy. Methodologically, the paper employs linear regression, treating annual sanctions’ damage (a static 2% of Russian GDP) as the independent variable and Russian Crude Oil import volumes to India as the dependant variable. This operationalization is a limitation, as it uses an indirect, constant economic proxy that fails to capture the escalating and qualitative intensity of sanctions over time, especially after events in Eastern Europe after February 2022. The key result is a positive, statistically significant coefficient, indicating that higher sanction estimates correlate with increased Russian Crude oil export to India. This directly contradicts the hypothesis that sanctions restrict export. The conclusion argues that sanctions have reoriented Russia’s oil trade, deepening IndoRussian ties as an unintended consequence. The findings underscore the outcomes of economic statecraft where sanctions are strengthening South-South partnerships and complicate global isolation efforts, though the methodological simplification warrants cautious interpretation.

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