Econometric Analysis of the Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth

The discussion on the issue of the impact of international trade on economic growth has been going on for more than a decade and is relevant in the context of the changing economic, political and epidemiological situation in the world. The article provides an overview of approaches and theories in defining the categories of international trade and economic growth. The views of scholars on the impact of international trade on economic growth are also systematized, and the main theses of each group of authors on the nature of the impact of international trade on economic growth are identified. Based on the definition of the role of the influence of international trade on the economic, three hypotheses were put forward: international trade contributes to economic growth (the factors are directly dependent); international trade leads to an economic decline (the factors are inversely related to each other); and international trade does not have any effect on economic growth. Defining the categories of international trade and economic growth through the quantitative values of exports and GDP per capita, respectively, an empirical research base was formed, which was compiled by statistical information on the value of exports and GDP per capita in Russia for the period 1995 – 2021. Significant differences were found in the dynamics of the studied indicators. Thus, up until 2013 and since 2016, the GDP per capita indicator changed in accordance with the dynamics of exports; in the period 2014 – 2015, the indicators changed in different directions, which was due to the influence of the sanctions imposed by the West against the Russian economy. In the process of econometric modeling, linear and power models were used, but the most suitable model for describing the relationship between the studied features was the power model. Evaluation of statistical significance and reliability allows the use of the power model for the analysis. Tightness indicators show that there is a strong relationship between exports and GDP per capita. The estimated coefficient with a regression model factor of more than 1% indicates the elasticity of changes in GDP per capita with changes in export volumes. Thus, for the Russian economy in the period 1995 – 2021, the hypothesis about the positive impact of international trade on economic growth in the country was adopted.

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