Socio-economic consequences of climate change in the arctic regions of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia)

Abstract

This article analyzes the socioeconomic consequences of climate change for the Arctic regions of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). The empirical basis of the study is official statistics and reports from the republic’s government agencies for the period 2014–2024. A cluster analysis was used as the central method, allowing for the assessment and classification of municipalities’ fiscal vulnerability to climate-induced disasters. The study focuses on key risks associated with permafrost degradation and increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as infrastructure destruction, threats to the traditional way of life of indigenous peoples, and stress on life support systems. The study results demonstrate significant spatial differentiation in vulnerability. Three clusters of districts with different risk types were identified: from those with uniquely high vulnerability to catastrophic isolated events (Zhigansky District, where emergency response costs in 2018 exceeded annual income) to those with persistent exposure to high-frequency but localized events (Verkhnekolymsky and Srednekolymsky Districts). Based on the analysis, the need for developing and implementing targeted adaptation measures differentiated by the identified types of budget risks for different territories is substantiated.