Scenario forecast of organic food production in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) up to 2040

The article presents a scenario forecast for organic food production in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) up to 2040. The relevance of the study is due to the need for a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of the organic sector on agricultural development. Based on an analysis of agricultural output dynamics for 2014–2023, a baseline forecast is constructed using an exponential trend model (R² = 0.9555). Due to significant differentiation in dynamics across municipal districts (coefficient of variation of 21.5%), an adjustment factor is introduced in the form of the median of the average annual growth rate. Three scenarios for the organic sector’s development are adopted: conservative (3% organic share in 2040), baseline (5%), and optimistic (10%). All scenarios share the same initial condition – 1% in 2030. A price premium of 50% for organic products is applied, justified by the high share of livestock in the region’s agricultural structure (66.1% in 2023). The results show that the conservative scenario would increase the average annual growth rate of gross agricultural output by 1.0 p.p. (to 7.4%), the baseline scenario by 1.6 p.p. (to 8.0%), and the optimistic scenario by 3.0 p.p. (to 9.3%). The volume of organic production by 2040 will reach from 3.3 to 13.0 billion rubles depending on the scenario. Comparison with national targets, provided for by the Strategy for the Development of Organic Food Production in the Russian Federation until 2030, confirms the realism and achievability of the developed forecasts. More moderate estimates for Yakutia (organic growth rates 3.2–5.7 p.p. lower than the national average) are due to the objective starting conditions of the region. 

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