Improving the estimation of tax potential for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation when equalizing the budget security

The purpose of the article is to identify the factors that influence the formation of tax potential for other tax revenues when estimating the amount of subsidies for equalizing the budget provision of Russian regions. According to the Method of distribution of subsidies for equalizing the budget security of the subjects of the Russian Federation, approved by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 670 of November 22, 2004, other tax revenues include taxes received by the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, with the exception of corporate income tax, personal income tax, corporate property tax, excise taxes, and mineral extraction tax. According to the report of the Federal Treasury for 2019, 55% of other tax revenues were provided by taxes paid by small businesses. One of the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic is the decline in the activity of small businesses. The rate of recovery of small business turnover will depend on the regional characteristics of the small business system (household income, population density, involvement in entrepreneurship, digitalization, etc.). In 17 regions, the tax potential for other tax revenues for 2020 was estimated with an excess of more than 50% over the actual revenues in this group of taxes for 2019. Of these, 12 regions are subsidized, including 10 regions with a level of budget provision less than the minimum level. Of these 10 regions, six belong to the North Caucasus Federal District, three - to the Far Eastern Federal District. The authors prepared a proposal to amend the formula for estimating the tax potential for other tax revenues in order to make the most objective assessment based on the peculiarities of the regional economy structure.

budget, tax potential, revenues of regional budgets, tax on total income, subsidy for equalizing budget security, budget deficit, region, regional economy, small business, unemployment

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