Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Unemployment and Pay Relationship

   Studying the influence of certain factors on the change in the level of pay, as the main source of income for the population, is relevant in the context of a developing market economy; moreover, it is of significance in the context of the occurrence of the epidemiological situation due to the emergence and spread of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. The spread of the coronavirus infection in Russia has led to a number of restrictive and preventive measures: the introduction of a lockdown, transfer to a remote work model, organization of vaccination, etc. The restrictive measures forced a number of businesses to either suspend or stop their activities, which led to increased unemployment rates in almost all regions of our country and, as a result, decreased levels of income and pay. The main hypothesis of the study is the influence of the epidemiological factor (spread of Covid-19 coronavirus infection) on the nature of the relationship between unemployment and pay. The empirical base of the study was data on unemployment rates and average salaries and wages by regions of the federal districts of Russia in the period 2018-2020. Correlation analysis tools served as the main research methods, which allowed us to identify the direction and closeness of the relationship between the studied indicators. The use of Student’s t-test confirmed with a probability of 0.95 the statistical significance and reliability of the correlation coefficient only for 2020 indicators. The correlation analysis confirmed the hypothesis about the impact of the pandemic on the nature of the relationship between unemployment and pay. During the spread of the pandemic, an increased rate of growth in unemployment led to a slowdown in pay growth, which corresponds to the concept of the Phillips curve. The correlation analysis revealed the reverse direction of the relationship between the indicators. The closeness of communication increased precisely during the spread of the pandemic, and it was most clearly observed in two federal districts: the Urals and the Siberian ones. The research materials can be used by government bodies for designing effective mechanisms for economic development under the epidemiological factors influencing the state economy.

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